A decade from now, the world’s biggest economic powerhouses are going to look very different.
China is set to dominate the world, India will outpace the United States, and Egypt’s economy will rise well above Australia’s into the top 10.
The world’s total population is expected to hit around 8.56 billion, with Asian countries alone making up almost five billion.
According to a recent Standard Chartered report, seven of the world’s 10 largest economies in 2030 will be from emerging markets.
All in all, Asia will experience major growth, with the continent’s share of GDP rising from 28 per cent to 35 per cent by 2030 — matching that of Europe and the US combined.
At the same time, the report predicts a majority of the world’s population — around 5.4 billion people — will enter a middle-class income group by 2030, up from three billion in 2015.
Both China and India are predicted to overtake the United States as the world’s largest and second-largest economies, respectively.
The US will drop to third place at $US31 trillion, followed by Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil.
China has long been predicted to become the world’s greatest economic powerhouse.
According to the Lowy Institute’s latest Asia Power Index, the rising superpower is set to surpass the United States in economic size, to become the most powerful country in the Asia-Pacific region.
But the country’s GDP growth will moderate to 5 per cent by 2030, reflecting a natural slowdown based on the sheer size of its economy.
Its economy is expected to hit $US64.2 trillion.
India’s GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate to 7.8 per cent to $US46.3 trillion.
According to projections from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, India is projected to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the coming decade.
It’s also on track to surpass China as the world’s most populous country.
“India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8 per cent by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC),” the report said.
But according to a Forbes analysis, India faces several challenges ahead. Some of its largest states are also its poorest. The GDP per capita of the capital, Delhi, is roughly equal to that of Indonesia at around $4000. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — two of India’s poorest states — are on par with sub-Saharan Africa at less than $1000.
The United States is expected to lose its position as the world’s largest economy.
Standard Chartered has already projected that China will overtake the US at some point next year, when measured in terms of both purchasing-power-parity exchange rates and nominal gross domestic product. Using just the former, China is already considered the world’s largest economy.
By 2030, the US economy will sit at $US31 trillion.
Australia’s northern neighbour, Indonesia, will rise to having the fourth biggest economy in the world.
The world’s most populous Muslim country will see its GDP rise from $3.2 trillion to $10.1 trillion in 2030.
Experts have predicted Indonesia’s economy will be three times the size of Australia’s by 2030.
Turkey will rise from the ninth to fifth-largest economy in 2030, with its overall GDP rising from $2.2 trillion to $9.1 trillion.
Turkey’s economy has grown rapidly over the past two years despite adverse shocks. According to a 2018 OECD report, labour productivity in the country now exceeds that of several other catching-up OECD economies.
“Sustained job creation outside agriculture, which accelerated in the 2010s, has improved
wellbeing, notably in less-developed regions,” the report notes.
Brazil’s economy is expected to grow strongly over the next decade, with its GDP projected to rise from $3.2 trillion to $8.6 trillion by 2030.
Of all the countries on this list, Egypt will make the biggest leap.
The only Middle Eastern country to feature in the top ten is projected to leap from 21st to 7th place over the next decade — a massive jump that coincides with the country’s population, which is expected to increase over 30 per cent to 128 million by 2030.
In other words, between figures from 2017 to 2030, Egypt’s economy will grow an astonishing 583 per cent.
Egypt’s GDP will rise from $1.2 trillion to $8.2 trillion by 2030.
Russia’s economy is expected to drop from sixth to eighth place on the list — but the country’s economy will still grow sizeably despite western sanctions.
Last week, a World Bank economic outlook released earlier this month said it expects Russia’s GDP growth rate to increase to 1.8 per cent in 2020 and 2021.
According to the International Monetary Fund, western sanctions will be outweighed by the positive impact of rising world oil prices on the Russian economy.
By 2030, Russia’s GDP will be $7.9 trillion, according to the report.
Japan’s economy is expected to drop from 4th to 9th place over the next decade, with fears the country’s shrinking workforce and ageing population could undermine years of economic growth.
By 2030, the country’s population aged 65 and older is expected to rise to 30 per cent, from 17 per cent in 2000.
Japan’s GDP will rise from $5.4 trillion to $7.2 trillion.
By 2030, Germany will maintain the strongest economy in western Europe, rounding out 10th place on the list.
The country’s economy is forecast to grow from $4.2 trillion to $6.9 trillion.